Source: Al Jazeera
The United Nations has warned governments and humanitarian organizations around the world to prepare for an increased risk of extreme weather as the El Niño climate pattern is expected to strengthen significantly in the coming months.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño conditions are already established and are forecast to intensify rapidly between July and September, raising the likelihood of severe heatwaves, prolonged droughts, and episodes of heavy rainfall across many parts of the world.
WMO Issues Global Warning
In a statement released on Friday, the UN’s weather agency said it has activated climate information services and early warning systems to help governments, disaster response agencies, and humanitarian organizations prepare for the potential impacts on vulnerable communities and agricultural production.
WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo said the developing weather pattern could have far-reaching consequences.
“El Niño conditions are already under way and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event, as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts,” Saulo said.
She warned that a stronger El Niño would increase the chances of drought in some regions while bringing heavier rainfall to others, alongside a greater risk of both land and marine heatwaves.
Saulo stressed that reliable seasonal forecasts and early warning systems remain essential for protecting lives, supporting farmers, and reducing economic losses linked to extreme weather.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon caused by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The warming alters global atmospheric circulation, influencing rainfall, temperatures, and weather patterns across different regions.
The phenomenon typically develops every two to seven years and generally lasts between nine and 12 months, reaching its peak between November and February.
Its counterpart, La Niña, produces the opposite effect by cooling Pacific Ocean waters. Together with neutral conditions, the two phases make up the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the world’s most important climate systems.
Scientists note that not every region experiences the same effects during an El Niño event, and extreme weather can still occur even when ENSO conditions are neutral.
Oceans Continue to Warm
The warning comes just a day after the WMO announced that global ocean temperatures reached a new record high in June, with El Niño contributing to the continued warming trend.
Warmer oceans provide more energy to the atmosphere, increasing the likelihood of more intense storms, heavier rainfall, marine heatwaves, and other climate-related hazards.
Climate Change Amplifying Impacts
Scientists say that while El Niño is a natural climate cycle, its effects are becoming more severe because of human induced climate change. Rising global temperatures are amplifying heatwaves, intensifying rainfall, and worsening drought conditions in many parts of the world.
The previous El Niño event contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year ever recorded, while 2024 became the hottest year on record, with global average temperatures reaching approximately 1.55 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 preindustrial average.
The WMO urged countries to continue strengthening preparedness measures, invest in early warning systems, and support vulnerable populations as the climate pattern develops over the coming months.
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